Tropical Storm Lorenzo, the 12th named storm of the hurricane season, formed early Monday over the central tropical Atlantic from a tropical disturbance that rolled off Africa late last week.
Although not unheard of, it’s rare for a named storm to form this far east in the deep tropics (south of 20°N) this late in the hurricane season. The last time we saw such an occurrence was back in 2003 when both Nicholas and Peter formed unusually late and far east over the Atlantic Main Development Region, an area typically reserved for August and September formations.
Like Nicholas and Peter in 2003, Lorenzo could take an infinity-like loop over the open Atlantic, with its track looping back south this weekend into early next week in almost figure-8 fashion.
Intensity guidance is underwhelmed with Lorenzo’s prospects and mostly maintain it at tropical storm strength this week. Regardless, Lorenzo poses no threat to land.
Keeping an eye on the Caribbean for next week
Longer range forecast models are beginning to home in on possible development in the Caribbean for the middle to latter part of next week (October 22-25), something we first mentioned in this newsletter last Friday.
The system models are sniffing out is a tropical wave that’s only now emerging off the west coast of Africa.
As we would expect for mid to late October, conditions ahead in the eastern and central Atlantic will be hostile to development, but as it moves into the Caribbean deeper next week, the upper-level pattern will become increasingly hospitable to development.
Interestingly, wind shear in the Caribbean has been running historically low through the heart of the season – consistent with a budding La Niña in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Since September, wind shear across the Caribbean has been the third lowest since 1979.
Despite what might otherwise signal heightened activity for the Caribbean or Gulf, the steering pattern has blocked systems from making it far enough west to capitalize on the more conducive conditions.
The development window is still more than a week out and it’s far too soon to know specifics, but it’s certainly something to monitor in the week ahead, especially for areas of the western Caribbean.
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