A broad non-tropical disturbance related to a dying cold front has moved off the Southeast coast – now centered over the waters offshore of Georgia and the Carolinas. Over the weekend, as the disturbance moves across the Gulf Stream, computer forecast models indicate that the circulation could try to organize into a tropical or more likely a subtropical depression.
The National Hurricane Center is giving the system a fairly low chance of getting organized. At this point, it appears that it would just be a technicality anyway, and it wouldn’t change the weather over Florida. In any case, the system would not be expected to get very strong or last very long.
Over the next few days, the old front will continue to sink south with the disturbance loosely attached. The front still being in the picture reduces the odds that the disturbance would have enough time to break away and develop on its own, but it’s not impossible.
The whole mess will likely be an elongated area of low pressure that will end up over the southern Florida peninsula this weekend. In addition, an upper-level disturbance is forecast to move from the Bahamas into the Gulf at the same time. That should pump tropical moisture over the dying front and the disturbance.
The combination of all of these factors is expected to result in periods of very heavy rain in South Florida beginning late today and into next week. The National Weather Service is tentatively forecasting 5 inches or more of rainfall in some parts of southeast Florida from this combination of systems.
The ground is still somewhat saturated from the excess rain we’ve had this year, so local flooding is a threat. Be aware for the next few days.
Elsewhere in the tropics, Mother Nature is taking a break. The long-range computer forecast models don’t show anything developing through the middle of next week, at least.