Hurricane Erin’s reach through the western Atlantic continues to grow and intensify, with pressures quickly falling into the low 940s while churning about 475 miles east-southeast of northeast Florida.
Though the impressive pressure falls have been slow to translate into an increase in peak winds, Erin is harnessing the extra energy to become a freakishly large hurricane, with a gargantuan reach of Category 2-plus winds stretching an incredible 100 miles from its center.
Erin’s powerful and exceptionally wide wind field will mean an historic hurricane event for the western Atlantic, with individual waves topping 100 feet offshore over the next few days. Yesterday a buoy about 100 miles east of Erin’s track northeast of the Bahamas recorded wave heights reaching 40 feet.
Although Erin is forecast to pass about 250 miles east of North Carolina at its closest point of approach to the U.S. on Thursday, its violent seas and long-period swell will fuel major coastal hazards up and down the U.S. Eastern Seaboard.
Life-threatening surf and rip currents are expected from Miami to Massachusetts and already dozens of swimmers have been rescued from rip currents this week, including more than 70 water rescues in the Wilmington area alone on Monday.
Popular beaches along the mid-Atlantic and northeast have preemptively closed in advance of Erin’s treacherous surf.
The most significant coastal threat will be along North Carolina’s Outer Banks, especially on Thursday, where moderate to major coastal flooding is forecast with the evening high tide.
Battering waves reaching 20 feet in the surf zone will compound flooding along the oceanside barrier islands, resulting in substantial beach and dune erosion and making some waterfront roads impassable.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for coastal North Carolina north of Morehead City, including its Outer Banks and Pamlico and Albermarle Sounds, and the Atlantic coast of Virginia, including Virginia Beach, in anticipation of 39-plus mph winds on the edge of Erin beginning this evening.
Meanwhile Bermuda is under a Tropical Storm Watch, as gusty winds above 38 mph could also begin affecting the archipelago in the coming hours.
Erin will accelerate quickly away from the U.S. on Friday and into the far north Atlantic over the weekend, but high waves and surf will linger from North Carolina northward in its wake.
Extraordinary Erin
Erin’s size is extraordinary for an Atlantic hurricane, particularly one so close to the United States. It’s very central pressure is remarkably low for a 110 mph hurricane. In the satellite record, only Maria (2017), Irma (2017), Sandy (2012), Igor (2010), and Gloria (1985) had pressures as low as Erin’s with peak winds below Category 3 strength.
Studies show that minimum central pressure is a better correlated with hurricane damage than maximum winds, and Erin’s pressures are more reminiscent of a Category 4, not Category 2, hurricane.
Erin is in ultra-elite company as far as large, powerful hurricanes go and despite the serious coastal problems ahead, the U.S. was spared what otherwise could’ve been an especially widespread and devastating hit.
No major threats elsewhere for now
We continue to monitor two disturbances over the tropical Atlantic today.
The easternmost tropical wave – designated Invest 99L – has the lower odds of development of the two but actually looks most organized on satellite today. It’s development window is short, however, and if it manages to pull itself together, it won’t last very long as conditions quickly become less conducive ahead.
The westernmost disturbance will approach the northeastern islands of the eastern Caribbean on Friday, bringing with it squally weather. For now, we don’t foresee a significant threat to the islands with this and models have come into agreement with quickly turning it out to sea next week well before reaching the U.S.
CLICK HERE to download the Local 10 Weather Authority’s 2025 hurricane survival guide.
Copyright 2025 by WPLG Local10.com - All rights reserved.
