It’s been 13 days since the Atlantic basin – which includes the Gulf, Caribbean, and wider Atlantic – has had any active systems, a remarkable an unprecedented dry spell coinciding with what are typically the most active weeks of the hurricane season.
A broad area of low pressure spinning about 1,000 miles southeast of Bermuda over the open central Atlantic is the only game in town for the next week but could make a run at breaking the quiet streak by this weekend.
As of Tuesday morning, the National Hurricane Center was giving the system a medium chance of developing, but not only later this week when upper-level winds become more conducive to organization.
As we discussed in Monday’s newsletter, computer models are split on this one. Traditional physics-based models indicate little to no appreciable odds of development while our newer AI camp of models is more bullish, though have waffled on those higher odds from run to run.
Both the Euro AI ensemble system and the Google’s DeepMind machine learning-based 1,000-member ensemble system suggest a medium chance of development as the system loiters over the central Atlantic into next week.
While the low-pressure system will initially move northwestward, by the weekend high pressure building to its north could drive it back south, allowing it to do a quick loop-the-loop, eventually turning back toward the northeast ahead of an advancing jet stream dip next week.
The uncertainty with this one is high – both with its future development and track – and while it won’t be a concern for the U.S., interests in Bermuda will want to monitor the forecasts as the system hangs around in the vicinity for the next week or so.
If the system becomes better organized in the coming days and is designated an invest, we’ll have more specialized intensity models to help us better gauge future intensity, but models do suggest it’ll be in an environment that could support strengthening should it form.
For now, it’s no near-term threat, but we’ll follow the trends for Bermuda in the days ahead.
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