MIAMI – The National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecasters remain extremely busy with three ongoing tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin. South Florida residents are watching Tropical Storm Maria that is currently centered a few hundred miles southeast of the Leeward Islands. Showers and thunderstorms are already spreading over portions of the Lesser Antilles but the convective activity is still disorganized at the moment. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane is currently flying into Maria and has yet to find a well-defined circulation.
The NHC forecast reflects the fact that most of the computer guidance shows Maria gradually intensifying into a hurricane and turning toward the northwest with time. The forecast has Maria moving through the northeastern Caribbean and then shows the center of Maria passing a little to the east of the Bahamas. It should be noted that the track cone still covers most of the Bahamas.
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The most recent European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model depicts a weaker tropical cyclone that moves into the central to northwestern Bahamas before eventually turning more northward. Given that the ECMWF model is consistently one of the better performing models, this means that South Floridians still need to keep an eye on Maria.