MIAMI — As high-stakes talks between the U.S. and Cuba appear to stall, U.S. leaders continue to make the case for intervention while leaders on the communist island say they are prepared to defend themselves should the U.S. strike.

While analysts say the Cuban military is no match for U.S. forces, they also say Washington may be trying to tread lightly.

“Our military capabilities, as we have seen, even in Iran and other places, are very strong,” Local 10 Cuba Analyst Andy Gomez said.

If the U.S. is weighing military intervention in Cuba, Gomez said the Cuban armed forces are weak.

“They have 30 airplanes, about 3,000 ... you know, tanks, personnel movement, 50,000 regular soldiers. That’s pretty small,” Gomez said.

US would face aging equipment, but possible asymmetric war

Brian Fonseca, the defense and national security research vice provost at Florida International University, said U.S. forces would initially be up against aging Soviet-era equipment.

“If they were to do a smash-and-grab kind of operation, like they did with Nicolas Maduro, they would probably meet very little resistance,” he said.

But Fonseca said if the U.S. tries to have a pronounced presence on the ground, it could be met with guerilla warfare from Castro regime loyalists.

“During the Castro period, Fidel implemented a concept called ‘War of All the People,’ in which there were pockets of militia throughout the country that were there to repel Americans if Americans were to invade Cuba,” he said. “I think that’s the one sort of wildcard scenario the United States has to think about.

“If there is a pronounced US president on the presence on the ground, does the regime have the capability to inflict pain against the United States in a more asymmetric ‘War of All the People’ context, in which you have militia located in smaller localities across the country?”

But if the U.S. tries a Maduro-like operation, Gomez said the country should not expect help from the top.

“Venezuela and Cuba are very different, because there’s no Delcy Rodriguez in Cuba (who is) going to hand over Raul Castro,” Gomez said. “The entire inner circle around Raul Castro are Raulistas. Everyone around Raul Castro the top generals are Raulistas. And he made sure once Fidel was dead to have Raulistas ― supporters ― around him. Now below that, that’s another question and we have to wait and see.”

What happens afterward?

Fonseca said there are not a lot of certainties about what a Cuba scenario would look like.

“There’s still unknowns as to how much or whether or not there would be a resistance to the Americans on the ground. I think that’s why the United States is going to tread lightly,” he said. “It’s not to suggest the United States is not going to unlock the military. I think it’s already signaling it’s going to unlock the military, but it has to be careful it doesn’t engage the Cuban people.”

That, Fonseca said, might bring the U.S. “into a more pronounced conflict,” which he said would be a “disaster for domestic policy too, especially as we lead into the November 2026 midterms.”

It comes as high-stakes talks between the U.S. and Cuba appear to stall.

On Thursday, Cuba’s deputy foreign affairs minister, speaking at a legislative hearing in Havana, said a mounting threat of U.S. military aggression is “without justification,” while U.S. leaders continue to make a case against Cuba.

At an event at Miami Dade College on Thursday hosted by the World Affairs Council of Miami, U.S. Rep. Carlos Gimenez, R-Florida, said, “The desire for freedom has never disappeared” among the Cuban people.

The council’s president, Aaron Rosen, also weighed in.

“Cuba would not really be able to match up to the United States in a one-to-one conflict,” he said. “However, if the US and Cuba did find itself at war, and the US decimated Cuba’s military it would very soon find that it inherits Cuba’s political future and there are very big open questions about what that might mean and for what comes next.”

Can White House make case to skeptical public?

While recent polls find a majority of Cuban Americans support U.S. military intervention, nationwide surveys find Americans as a whole do not.

“Certainly South Floridians and Cuban Americans want to see the United States take action. They’ve been waiting decades for the U.S. to approach Cuba in a more hawkish manner to displace the regime. In fact, I often argue that many of the Cuban Americans are in it for revenge,” Fonseca said. “They want to see the regime fall, and that’s not something that I think the rest of the nation is really interested in. It’s not personal for the rest of the nation; it’s personal for Cuban Americans.”

That means, Fonseca said, that the White House has to be “somewhat careful” and “build a solid case for why Cuba is an imminent threat before they launch military intervention.”

“I think that’s what’s being laid over the last few weeks and what will likely be laid going forward. You just heard two cases in which the White House has essentially articulated Cuba as an imminent threat,” he said. “One is the 300 drones, the other is the humanitarian crisis and so the White House is now beginning to lay the foundation for unlocking the military’s instrument of national power, not because they need to justify it for the Cuban Americans, but for the rest of the nation.”

What about Russia?

With Russian President Vladimir Putin focused on empire-building and bogged down in his war in Ukraine, the analysts said it is unlikely Russia will provide boots-on-the-ground assistance to Cuba should the U.S. strike.

Instead, Russia could assist the communist country through disinformation efforts or by providing goods and services to the island’s regime.

“While I’m not deeply concerned about Russian or Chinese conventional support to Cuba, I would be concerned about Russians supporting the Cubans’ ability to fight in the trenches in an asymmetric conflict, or the Russians, for example, lighting a match and then walking away,” Fonseca said. “In other words, creating more instability for the United States on the ground.

“They would ultimately commit the Americans more deeply on the ground in Cuba for a more pronounced time, dealing with maybe civil unrest and some other things that I think the Russians could probably unlock, that would be a pain for the United States to deal with.”

Gomez also believes Russia probably will not help Cuba on the ground, but said it is critical to the U.S. that it not give the Cubans the military base at Guantanamo Bay.

“Because I have no doubt that in 30 days you’re going to see Chinese ships and Russian ships at that base,” he said.

Copyright 2026 by WPLG Local10.com - All rights reserved.