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IHME model continues to show downward projection in coronavirus deaths

COVID-19 model predicts some states may reach peak of deaths sooner than expected

IHME model shows predicted COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by August.
IHME model shows predicted COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by August. (IHME)

WASHINGTON – A forecasting model used by the White House to chart the coronavirus pandemic predicted this week that some U.S. states may reach their peak of COVID-19 deaths sooner than expected, but not every model agrees, the Washington Post reported Wednesday.

The IHME model predicts that the U.S. may need fewer hospital beds, ventilators and other equipment than previously thought, but that still has yet to be determined.

On Wednesday morning, the model had been revised with a further downward projection, predicting a total of 60,400 U.S. deaths by August. The peak of those deaths is expected to arrive on April 12.

In late March, the Trump administration predicted a best-case scenario of 100,000 to 240,000 fatalities in the U.S.

According to the Washington Post’s report, experts have warned that this model, while used widely, has consistently showed lower numbers than those of other models.

Some politicians throughout the U.S. have also expressed concern about the federal government using IHME’s lower estimates to deny states’ requests for equipment and help in preparations.

“The stark differences between the IHME model and dozens of others being created by states exposes the glaring lack of national models provided publicly by the White House or agencies such as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for local leaders to use in planning or preparation,” the Washington Post reported.


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