Florida
South Florida
UPDATES
For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
East-Central Subtropical Atlantic: An area of low pressure located about 900 miles northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has been producing a small but persistent area of showers and thunderstorms to the east of its center since this morning. However, the low is forecast to move southwestward at 10 to 15 mph into an area of stronger upper-level winds tonight and tomorrow, and additional development is not expected.
No additional Special Tropical Weather Outlooks are scheduled for this system unless conditions warrant. Regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlooks will resume on May 15, 2024, and Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as necessary during the remainder of the off-season. * Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days, low, 10 percent.
Posted 1 week, 1 day ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Berg/Brown
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 04N20W to 03N30W. The ITCZ extends from 03N30W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is active from 03N to 07N between 15W and 20W.
Gulf Of Mexico
Recent buoy observations and scatterometer satellite data indicate fresh SE winds across the western Gulf, between high pressure over the western Atlantic and lower pressure over Mexico. Concurrent altimeter data along with buoy data indicate combined seas are 5 to 7 ft in this area. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 3 to 5 ft are noted elsewhere, except for light breezes and slight seas over the far northeast Gulf. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are starting to diminish off the central Texas coast.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between weak high pressure over Florida and the eastern Gulf, and relatively lower pressures over the rest of the Gulf and in Mexico will support mostly fresh southeast winds over the western and central Gulf through the forecast period. Fresh to strong winds will pulse at night for the next few days near the northern and western Yucatan Peninsula due to local effects induced by a local trough.
Caribbean Sea
A sharp upper trough reaches north of the Caribbean from over Bermuda through the northern Bahamas. This is supporting a surface trough north of Haiti, which in turn is disrupting the normal subtropical ridge that is resident to the north of the Caribbean. This is resulting in relatively light winds and modest seas across western half of the basin. Moderate to fresh SE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere over the eastern Caribbean. Divergent flow aloft associated with the upper trough is also supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Windward Passage, eastern Cuba, and the higher terrain of Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Refer to local weather advisories for information regarding any heavy rainfall or related flooding.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh northeast winds are expected in the lee of Cuba, northwestern Caribbean and just in the Windward Passage tonight and Fri night and in the Windward Passage Sat night and Sun night. Gentle to moderate trade winds are expected over the area through the forecast period, except for mostly fresh winds in the south-central Caribbean. The interaction between a trough along 80W/81W south of 20N with the base of a western Atlantic upper-level trough that extends into the western Caribbean has resulted in the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms from the eastern tip of Cuba to the Windward Passage. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the waters between eastern Cuba and Jamaica. All of this activity is translating east-northeastward.
Atlantic Ocean
A sharp upper trough reaches north of the Caribbean from over Bermuda through the northern Bahamas. This is supporting a surface trough along roughly 72W south of 27N. Recent scatterometer satellite data showed fresh SE winds south of 25N and east of the southern Bahamas and near the approaches to the Windward Passage, between the surface trough and higher pressure to the northeast of the region. Combined seas are 5 to 7 ft in open waters east of the southern Bahamas. Gentle to moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft are noted farther north, west of 55W. Divergent flow aloft associated with the upper trough is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms north of Puerto Rico from 20N to 25N between 60W and 70W.
Farther east, a stationary front extends from 30N37W to 25N60W. An earlier scatterometer satellite pass indicated moderate to fresh SW winds within 90 nm east of the front, north of 28N. Elsewhere between 35W and 55W, gentle to moderate winds are noted north of 20N with 5 to 8 ft combined seas in NW to N swell, and moderate to fresh trade winds farther south with 5 to 7 ft combined seas. East of 35W, fresh to strong NE winds and 5 to 8 ft seas are noted over the eastern Atlantic south of 20N and east of 30W. As well as north of 20N and east of east of 25W, to the south of strong high pressure centered east of the Azores.
For the forecast west of 55W, the upper trough is expected to help promote the formation of weak low pressure well northeast of the Leeward Islands Fri. The low will track east- northeastward Fri through Sat, and weaken back into a trough while exiting the area to the east of 55W on Sun. High pressure will then take precedence over the entire area early next week. Moderate to fresh south winds are forecast to develop over the waters east of northeastern Florida Tue and Tue night.
Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Christensen
