HURRICANE

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N17W and continues southwestward to 06N21W. The ITCZ extends from 06N21W to 01N47W. Convection previously associated with these features has dissipated early this morning.

Gulf Of Mexico

Divergence aloft and deep tropical moisture is supporting scattered moderate convection offshore Texas and Louisiana, with dry conditions over the rest of the basin. High pressure centered over the northern Gulf maintains moderate to fresh E-SE winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft south of 25N and W of 88W. Mainly gentle winds and slight seas are found in the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure centered over the NE Gulf and lower pressures in the western Gulf will continue to support moderate to fresh winds over much of the Gulf of Mexico well into next week. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse at night for the next few days near the northern and western Yucatan Peninsula due to a thermal trough.

Caribbean Sea

An Atlantic surface trough extends SW to Haiti and is inducing numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms over and in the vicinity of Hispaniola. Refer to local weather advisories for information regarding any heavy rainfall or related flooding. Another trough extends from northern Colombia to south of Jamaica. This trough is causing scattered showers and thunderstorms in the south-central Caribbean. These features have disrupted the typical tradewind regime over the basin, with light to gentle winds over the central and SW Caribbean, moderate winds in the NW and NE basin, and fresh E to SE winds in the SE Caribbean. Seas in the central and western basin are 2 to 4 ft, with 4 to 6 ft waves in the eastern Caribbean.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh northeast winds are expected in the northwestern Caribbean into tonight, and in the Windward Passage nightly through the weekend. Mainly moderate winds are expected over the remainder of the area through early next week. The interaction between a trough along 80W/81W south of 20N with the base of a western Atlantic upper-level trough that extends into the western Caribbean has resulted in the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms from the eastern tip of Cuba to the Windward Passage.

Atlantic Ocean

A deep-layer trough extends from near Bermuda to Hispaniola, with scattered showers and thunderstorms occurring in association with it from 20N to 30N between 52W and 72W. For waters N of 20N and W of 50W, winds and seas are moderate or less, except locally higher near the most robust convection. Farther east, another surface trough extends from 30N30W to 21N50W. No convection is associated with this trough, and winds N of 20N and E of 50W are mainly light to gentle, with seas of 5 to 7 ft. S of 20N, trade winds dominate, with moderate to locally fresh E winds, and seas of 5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the gradient between high pressure over the western Atlantic and the aforementioned trough will support pulsing fresh east to southeast winds east of the trough, and moderate to fresh northeast to east winds west of the trough. The trough is expected to help promote the formation of weak low pressure along the surface trough later today. The low will track east- northeastward through Sat, then dissipate along the trough while exiting the area on Sun. High pressure will then take precedence over the entire area early next week. Moderate to locally fresh south winds are forecast to develop over the waters east of northeastern Florida Tue and Tue night.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Konarik