A disturbance over Tennessee and northern Alabama is forecast to move into the northern Gulf of Mexico midweek.
The computer models forecast it to develop a defined circulation over the extremely warm water. The development of a tropical depression or tropical storm appears increasingly likely Thursday or Friday.
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A pocket of favorable upper-level winds is forecast over the northern Gulf, and if the circulation lines up with that, it could organize and strengthen fairly quickly. How strong it can get will depend on how long it remains over the Gulf water, which is unknown at this point.
Everybody along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle should stay aware of developments this week.
Elsewhere, the Atlantic and the Caribbean are expected to remain quiet this week as a large area of Saharan dust makes its way across from Africa.