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Very slight chance of tropical organization in Gulf of Mexico this week

There is a very slight chance the small disturbance tracking out to sea off the Northeast coast might briefly develop today. And a moisture surge heading for the western Gulf, which is loosely paired with a potential hurricane which computer models say will parallel the Mexican Pacific coat, will have to be watched.  

Neither system is likely to be very strong, but the moisture surge may bring the threat to flooding to the Texas and Louisiana coastal sections late in the week.

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Elsewhere, drier than normal air caused by a combination of dust from Africa and descending air in the atmosphere is inhibiting the development of systems in the Atlantic.

No tropical development is expected in the tropical Atlantic or the Caribbean and the surrounding waters this week.

August 19, 1992:  Tropical Storm Andrew was about 1,500 miles from Miami. It was extremely unimpressive on the satellite. The National Hurricane Center was estimating its top winds at 50 mph.

The unfavorable upper-level winds that had been trying to tear the system apart were expected to abate, and Andrew was forecast to slowly strengthen as it continued in the general direction of Florida over the next 3 days. That evening, I introduced an early version of the forecast cone on TV that showed a possible track to Cuba on the south or toward the Carolinas on the north. Such were the average forecast errors in 1992. We were not very concerned.


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