Tropical Storm Beta’s center of circulation will make landfall on the central Texas coast today, but the main effects will be north of the landfall point because the storm is seriously lopsided and leaning that way.
Moderately strong upper-level winds have tilted the storm toward the north and spread the moisture that way as well. They have also kept the storm from getting very strong. In addition, the wind on the north side of the storm is pushing the Gulf water onshore.
That combination means almost all of the significant effects from Beta will be along the central and northern part of the Texas coast and in Louisiana.
The National Hurricane Center is forecasting 5 to 10 inches of rain along the affected coastline with some areas getting 15 inches. In addition, Gulf water is forecast to be pushed 3 to 5 feet above normal high tide today on the Texas coast from Galveston Island to the Louisiana line.
After Beta moves ashore, the heavy rain will spread well inland to the north.
The rain from Beta will be enhanced because the storm is throwing its moisture up against a front that runs from just north of the storm across South Florida and up into Hurricane Teddy, which is near Bermuda. While Beta is pushing the west end of the front north, Teddy is pushing the right end of the front south.
The push south is going to be strong enough to change the air mass over all of Florida. In South Florida, a stiff wind will blow the new air in off the warm Atlantic Ocean, so it won’t be as cool as farther north. But the change in humidity will be dramatic when the band of tropical moisture finally pushes off to the south by tomorrow.
Early-season fronts don’t normally stay south, and this one will be no exception. The moisture will surge back north about Thursday, as the tropics re-exerts its influence on our weather. It’s too early for us to fully escape tropical air.
Sometimes the changing air direction with a front can initiate a circulation over warm tropical water. The National Hurricane Center is noting that possibility later this week when the front pushes back to the north. As of now, it looks like a slight chance.
Beyond a cluster of thunderstorms related to the front, there is no sign of the system at this time.
In the Atlantic, Hurricane Teddy will brush by Bermuda today. They’ll get strong winds, but not as bad as from Hurricane Paulette a week ago. Soon after it passes the island, Teddy will start to transition into a big and powerful winter-type North Atlantic storm. It’s forecast to track directly into Nova Scotia and Newfoundland in Atlantic Canada on Wednesday.
Teddy’s giant circulation is putting a lot of energy into the Atlantic, which is reaching the East Coast of the U.S. and the Bahamas. The powerful ocean swells will be most noticeable from Palm Beach County north because the Bahamas is blocking a lot of the energy from reaching Broward and Dade. Still, the risk of rip currents will be high until the swells dissipate.
Speaking of dissipating, Wilfred is no more. It died out in the middle of the Atlantic.
Ex-Paulette is still spinning in the eastern Atlantic, and still has a chance to regain some tropical characteristics. It will stay on the other side of the ocean.
Once Beta and Teddy are off the board in 2 or 3 days, with the exception of inconsequential Paulette, the ocean will be clear of current or potential tropical systems.
With the exception of the slight chance of something related to the front, there are no signs of any tropical development this week.