After 23 named storms formed at a record pace, Mother Nature is taking a break. We’ve seen more than double the average number of named storms form this season – averaging the numbers from the modern era beginning 1991. Over that time, the average has been 10 named storms by this point in the year.
Now, our focus shifts to the Caribbean and Gulf for future tropical development. Beta, which formed out of a random minor disturbance that hung around over the warm Gulf waters, was an example of one of the types of triggering mechanisms we’ll look for.
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The National Weather Service is still tracking the remnants of Beta over the Southeast, which will produce a swath of rain across the Mid-South into the Carolinas. Some local flooding is still possible.
And, Beta will play a role in South Florida’s weather. It will team with an upper-level disturbance to pull tropical moisture north. That effectively will pull the front that cooled us off back to the north. And that will put South Florida back in the humid air.
Our rain chances are already higher today, and they increase even more tomorrow as the tropical moisture streams north.
It is this kind of scenario that can bring tropical disturbances north in October, so a weather pattern that includes big dips in the jet stream is a double-edged sword. On one hand, a big dip is the mechanism to drive cold fronts south, which most people like. But on the other, it’s often a big dip that acts like a scoop to bring a tropical storm or hurricane north.
Thankfully, at the moment, there doesn’t seem to be a disturbance available to take advantage of the steering flow and conducive upper winds over the southeast Gulf of Mexico. But that’s what we’ll be looking out for.
For now, there are no signs of anything that might develop in the tropics into next week, at least.