The disturbance we have been watching east of the Bahamas is getting slightly more organized. Tropical Disturbance #1 has a decent chance to eventually become a named storm, but it’s in a competition with Tropical Disturbance #2 on the other side of the Atlantic to see which one gets named first. The next two names on the list are Odette and Peter.
The forecasts for Tropical Disturbance #1 have consistently shown it tracking just offshore of the Carolinas, the Mid-Atlantic states, and New England. It’s not 100 percent certain that the center of circulation will stay offshore – forecasts for weak and developing systems are always iffy. But the atmospheric pattern would seem to favor the bands of gusty winds and heavy rain staying mostly on the east side of the system over the ocean. So this storm doesn’t seem like a big threat at this time.
It will generate dangerous swells at East Coast beaches, however. And we’ll have to keep an eye on it. We will be more confident in the forecast once it’s better developed.
Tropical Disturbance #2 isn’t coming together yet. The upper-level winds are not conducive for quick strengthening over that part of the tropical Atlantic, so it’s not a surprise that nothing is happening quickly. Still, the pattern is forecast to become somewhat more conducive for development as the system heads to the west.
Looking ahead, the consensus of the computer model forecasts is that the disturbance will continue in the general direction of the northeastern Caribbean islands through the weekend. Late in the weekend or early next week, the forecasts diverge. In general, computer forecasts that assume the system will stay fairly weak, continue it toward the west. Those that think it will strengthen arc it toward the north.
So, exactly how close the system will come to the islands and how fast it turns north is uncertain, and to some degree dependent on how strong the storm gets. We have to let the system organize some more before we can have much confidence in the long-range forecasts.
Disturbance #3 is just coming off the African coast. The computer forecast models are forecasting it to develop into at least a tropical depression over the next few days. It appears that it will track over or near the Cabo Verde Islands as it turns north in the eastern Atlantic. Beyond that, this one doesn’t appear to be a threat to land.
Rain from the remnants of Nicholas is still plaguing the Gulf coast. Flooding continues to be a concern since the region has been saturated by heavy rain events this year. Nicholas’s effects will slowly fade through today and tomorrow, but a moderately rainy weather pattern will continue.
Otherwise, nothing new seems to be in the offing.