PEMBROKE PINES, Fla. – Researchers from Florida State University are investigating how the public perceives the National Hurricane Center’s track forecast cone or, as many call it, the cone of uncertainty.
Through a survey available online through Sunday, June 5, FSU researchers are looking for input into how well people living in hurricane-prone areas, such as South Florida, understand the cone. From the survey, they’ll put together focus groups to investigate the question further.
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The National Hurricane Center states its cone represents the probable track of the center of a tropical cyclone. Forecasters add that it is important to remember that hazardous weather can occur outside the cone. Also, the size of the cone is based on forecast accuracy over the past 5 years.
Have you ever thought about how well you understand the cone?
Click here to access the 5-minute recruitment survey. The researchers are selecting people from the survey to participate in a larger focus group.
In a similar project last year, FSU researchers looked at changes to the cone that would help people better understand tropical cyclones, without confusing them. Findings showed that residents in hurricane-prone regions would like a cone graphic that also displays the dangerous hazards of tropical cyclones.