An area of low pressure between Cuba and Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula – designated Invest 93L by the National Hurricane Center – has steadily organized since Friday and is expected to become a tropical depression or storm by late Saturday or Sunday.
Forecast models have come into better agreement with a strengthening storm system – likely a tropical storm or hurricane – approaching Florida’s Gulf Coast by next Tuesday into Wednesday. Residents along the eastern Gulf from southwest Florida to coastal Alabama should closely follow the forecasts into next week.
What we know now
Satellite trends since Friday have shown a steadily organizing low-pressure system over the northwestern Caribbean.
Invest 93L is percolating in a remarkably pristine environment of very low wind shear under a sprawling upper-level high and atop one of the warmest, deepest reservoirs of water on the planet. The system will fester near the Yucatan Peninsula this weekend and into Monday in a no-man’s-land of steering.
By late Monday into Tuesday, a developing storm will accelerate northward toward Florida’s Gulf Coast and come ashore from late Tuesday into Wednesday.
What we don’t yet know
The biggest and perhaps only deterrent to strengthening this weekend will be how much Invest 93L interacts with land.
Model guidance continues to advertise the low-pressure area becoming established over the Yucatán Peninsula and not moving much until Monday.
This would limit 93L’s development potential over the next few days, though not necessarily enough to prevent it from forming. If thunderstorms consolidate east of the Yucatán – as the trend has been so far this morning – a stronger system could take shape this weekend.
It’s tempting to take model forecasts as gospel when they appear to hone in on a threat area, but readers are reminded the average track error 4-5 days out for developed systems is 150-200 miles, roughly the distance from Tampa to Tallahassee as the crow flies.
The error is even greater for systems that haven’t yet formed. Until we have a well-defined circulation center, buyers beware on forecast models. Residents all along Florida’s Gulf Coast and into coastal Alabama should continue to closely monitor the changing forecasts.
The system’s organization this weekend will also factor into its potential strength down the road.
While the consensus for now suggests a tropical storm moving into the eastern Gulf early next week, the configuration of upper-level winds could favor additional strengthening, perhaps into a hurricane. A northward scenario would favor a stronger storm, with southward scenarios tending to a weaker storm with less time over Gulf waters.
The bottom line
Invest 93L poses a growing threat to the eastern Gulf of Mexico next week. A tropical storm or hurricane could threaten Florida’s Gulf Coast by Tuesday into Wednesday.
Residents should finalize preparations over the weekend and listen to local authorities as forecasts come into focus next week.
Franklin on its way to becoming a hurricane
After several days of fending off ferocious wind shear, Franklin is finally strengthening and will likely be upgraded to the second Atlantic hurricane of 2023 by Saturday evening.
Hurricane Hunters flying Franklin Saturday morning are finding increasing winds and lowering pressures, suggesting an intensifying storm.
The center of Franklin is expected to pass safely west of Bermuda, though gusty winds and outer bands could affect the archipelago as the storm makes its closest approach next week. The storm is no threat to the United States.
Elsewhere across the Atlantic
Invest 92L in the central Atlantic will be curling up into the open Atlantic and remains no threat to land.
We’ll be following another tropical wave forecast to move off Africa by early next week, but for now development odds remain low.