NHC monitoring wave near South Florida, dim outlook for development

PEMBROKE PARK, Fla. – The European computer forecast model continues to show a tropical disturbance moving into the South Florida late in the Labor Day weekend. The American GFS model shows a much weaker version of the disturbance, but still indicates an increase in tropical moisture.

The disturbance – a tropical wave – is approaching the Virgin Islands this morning. The atmospheric conditions between there and the Bahamas are not conducive for development of the system. When it moves over the Bahamas on Sunday, however, there is a pocket of more favorable atmosphere, and the European model indicates the beginnings of some organization. 

The National Hurricane Center acknowledged the wave in its 2 p.m. tropical weather outlook Thursday, noting "strong upper-level winds should prevent any significant development of this system during the next several days."

The odds strongly favor nothing more than a moisture surge accompanied by some gusty winds along the South Florida coast beginning on Monday and continuing into Tuesday. There is an outside chance that a tropical depression could develop, but that is more likely to happen, if it does, once the disturbance moves into the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. 

People along the northern and western Gulf Coast should stay aware next week since it appears that the atmospheric pattern over the Gulf will be more conducive for development of the system.

In South Florida, plan to stay aware during the holiday weekend in case something changes with the development of the system.

The map below shows the European Model moisture surge location Monday morning. It is expected to move across Florida into the Gulf on Tuesday. The system far offshore is likely to be Hurricane Florence, which is just a strong tropical wave near Africa this morning. The system that will be Florence is expected to move north in the Atlantic and not threaten the U.S.