Tropical disturbance to bring heavy rain this week

By Bryan Norcross - Hurricane Specialist

TROPICAL UPDATE: A weak tropical disturbance approaching The Bahamas is forecast to bring some heaving rain to Florida this week, but the odds of it developing into an organized system are very low. 

A tropical disturbance we have been tracking all the way across the Atlantic is now approaching the Bahamas.  At the same time, a robust cold front is pushing south, due to arrive in North Florida by midweek.  The combination of the front and the tropical moisture is expected to bring some heavy rain to parts of Florida, especially on Tuesday when the disturbance reaches the state.

The disturbance will merge with the front and lose its identity, but the moisture and the atmospheric conditions conducive for numerous thunderstorms over Florida will remain in place all week.

Elsewhere, most of the tropical Atlantic is covered by Saharan dust, which is not allowing tropical waves that move off of Africa to develop.  Tropical development is not expected this week.

For South Florida, here are Key Points from the National Weather Service office in Miami concerning the possibility for heavy and gusty thunderstorms this week:

*Chances for showers and thunderstorms will be increasing during the upcoming week – especially starting on Tuesday when the coverage of this activity could become numerous.

*Heavy rainfall and lightning should be the primary concerns with the showers and thunderstorms, with the potential for localized flooding increasing through the week.

*While locally strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out with thunderstorms, storms on Tuesday should pose the greatest potential for locally strong wind gusts.

*Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue into next weekend, though they are presently expected to be gradually decreasing by the end of the upcoming week into next weekend.

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