Tropics remain quiet, which isn't unusual this time of year

Average date for formation of third named storm is Aug. 13

By Bryan Norcross - Hurricane Specialist

The tropics are expected to remain quiet into the middle of next week, at least.

Unusually dry air and unfavorable upper-level winds are not allowing tropical systems to develop. The hostile conditions are expected to continue into mid-next week, at least. 

The average date for formation of the third named storm is Aug. 13, and the average date is Aug. 28 for the second hurricane. So there is nothing unusual about having a calm spell this time of year.


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NOAA's updated hurricane-season forecast, which came out Thursday, calls for a slightly above-average number of named storms and hurricanes and a higher number of Category 3 or above storms. Their reasoning is not clear in my mind, but seasonal hurricane forecasts are for entertainment anyway.

We're coming into the core of hurricane season, so now is the time to prepare. That's the bottom line.

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