Watching disturbance in southern Gulf for organized circulation

By Bryan Norcross - Hurricane Specialist

The disorganized tropical disturbance – technically named Invest 91L – in the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico continues its slow movement toward the Mexican coast. It is a broad circulation without a defined center, but it’s still possible an organized circulation could develop, depending on how much the system interacts with land.  

If the disturbance becomes sufficiently organized, it would be designated a tropical depression or Tropical Storm Barry by the National Hurricane Center, depending on the strength of the peak winds.

Another strong dip in the jet stream will move out of the southwestern U.S. into the south-central states beginning tomorrow and act like a scoop, pulling moisture from the disturbance north across eastern Texas and over the areas already suffering from record flooding mid to late week. If the system can organize, it would likely move north along the Mexico and Texas coast, but it is unlikely it could become very strong.  

High pressure will remain in control over the South Florida, which will keep any tropical systems away. Most of the moisture from the disturbance will stay to the west and north, though the high pressure will break down late in the week allow more moisture and a better chance of thunderstorms over the peninsula.

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