The only system of immediate interest is the tropical disturbance approaching the Caribbean islands. It is very disorganized and current indications are that upper-level winds will not allow it to get very strong, although we have to continue to watch it for the next several days to be sure.
The extra heavy rain over Florida is related to a weak tropical disturbance and an unusually strong dip in the jet stream over the Gulf of Mexico. The combination has produced a cloudy and rainy pattern, but nothing more is expected to come of it.
The situation related to the tropical disturbance approaching the Caribbean islands has changed since Thursday. Dry air and unfavorable atmospheric conditions have taken a toll, and the threat from the system is lower. It still has a decent chance of developing into at least a tropical depression just east of the islands, but farther west the upper winds appear unfavorable for development.
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We will have to continue to watch to be sure this trend holds, but as of now, the computer models do not show a significant threat to land areas.
Behind it, another tropical wave (disturbance) has come off of Africa, but the atmospheric conditions do not favor strengthening for at least the next several days.
In the Pacific Ocean, Erick is passing Hawaii to the south, but producing heavy rain in spots and gusty winds. Flossie is expected to approach Hawaii early in the week, increasing the moisture and generating high surf.
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