VIDEO: Tropical storm warnings issued for Bahamas with new storm

No warnings or watches issued yet for Florida

By Bryan Norcross - Hurricane Specialist

Tropical storm warnings were issued Thursday afternoon for several of the same islands recently hit by Hurricane Dorian.

In the National Hurricane Center's 5 p.m. advisory, a tropical storm warning was posted for Abacos, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island and New Providence.

With maximum sustained winds currently at 30 mph, potential cyclone nine is expected to move across the northwestern Bahamas on Friday, and along or over the east coast of central Florida on Saturday.

No warnings or watches have been issued for Florida.

"There is more than the usual uncertainty associated with this disturbance." says Local 10 Hurricane Specialst Max Mayfield. "At this time, the U.S. global models shows a weaker system moving into the Gulf of Mexico that would result in mainly a rain event for us. But the European model shows a stronger system moving northward along the Florida east coast. Anything in between is also possible"

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The forecast is confusing because there are two systems involved together: the disturbance and an upper-level low. The upper low has created unfavorable winds that have prevented the disturbance from organizing.

But now there are indications that the upper low is moving farther away from the disturbance into the Gulf of Mexico and may develop into a disturbance of its own. If it does, it could serve to steer Tropical Disturbance No. 1 in a general northward direction over the Bahamas and the Gulf Stream and toward the Florida, Georgia or Carolina coasts. Upper winds appear favorable for fairly quick development of a strong storm if it goes that way.

The other possibility is that the upper low continues its influence, and the disturbance stays relatively weak and moves over the Florida peninsula into the Gulf. If that happens, it would have some chance of developing, but would likely not intensify into a strong system.

Neither scenario appears very threatening for South Florida, but in any uncertain regime with a disturbance nearby in the heart of hurricane season, everyone in Florida and the Southeast should plan to stay informed. Things are likely to change day by day through the weekend.

Tropical Disturbance No. 2 on the other side of the Atlantic is not forecast to develop over the next few days. But when it gets near the eastern Caribbean islands late in the weekend or early next week, the atmospheric pattern is forecast to become more favorable for development. The track after that is very uncertain.

It is important to remember that projections for the future track and intensity of disorganized systems inevitably change. There is no center to track at the current time, so we can't have any confidence in long-range forecasts. Expect big changes in the computer forecast models each day.

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