For Fed, the ‘Neutral Rate’ Is Crucial, and Unknown
Central banks seek to manage economies by setting interest rates at levels that speed up or slow down things like car purchases and construction projects. But the enterprise revolves around a number that’s far more abstract — the rate that does nothing at all, also known as the neutral interest rate. Right now, it’s an important guidepost because most monetary policy makers are trying to set rates high enough to bring down inflation -- but not so high as to guarantee a recession. Another number
washingtonpost.comBiden preaches patience to voters spooked by economic tumult
When it comes to reassuring Americans about an economy that's an election-year challenge for his party, President Joe Biden is telling the country to hold on. It's a message of patience as voters are buffeted by persistent inflation, fears of a recession and the prospect of rising energy prices in the closing weeks of the campaign season when they will determine the fate of vulnerable Democrats and control of Congress. Biden argued that the newest numbers are solid and have slowed in recent months in a way that points toward inflation easing.
news.yahoo.comFor Fed, the ‘Neutral Rate’ Is Crucial, and Unknown
Central banks seek to manage economies by setting interest rates at levels that speed up or slow down things like car purchases and construction projects. But the enterprise revolves around a number that’s far more ephemeral — the rate that does nothing at all, also known as the neutral interest rate. Right now, it’s an important guidepost because most monetary policy makers are trying to set rates high enough to bring down inflation -- but not so high as to guarantee a recession. Another number
washingtonpost.comFor Fed, the ‘Neutral Rate’ Is Crucial, and Unknown
Central banks seek to manage economies by setting interest rates at levels that speed up or slow down things like car purchases and construction projects. But the enterprise revolves around a number that’s far more ephemeral — the rate that does nothing at all, also known as the neutral interest rate. Right now, it’s an important guide post because most monetary policy makers are trying to set rates high enough to bring down inflation — but not so high as to guarantee a recession. With the US Fe
washingtonpost.comPick your economy: booming labor market or fizzling growth
Only eight days separated the two government reports, yet they seemed to describe entirely different realities. The first showed a weak economy and the second reflected a juggernaut that was minting jobs faster than workers could be found to fill them.
washingtonpost.comBiden, Chevron chief trade sharp words over gas prices
In a pointed back and forth, the head of Chevron has complained that President Joe Biden has vilified energy firms at a time when gasoline prices are at near record levels and the president responded that the oil company CEO was being “mildly sensitive.”.
Harvard economist and former Obama adviser says Russia is 'basically a big gas station' and is otherwise 'incredibly unimportant' in the global economy
On the brink of imposing sanctions on Russia, the US and Europe have sought to reduce a ripple effect that could destabilize their own economies.
news.yahoo.comStimulus Spending Plays Major Role In Recent Inflation, Sales And Poverty Data
From poverty to inflation to retail sales numbers, economists are pointing to trends that reflect the role that nearly $5.9 trillion in stimulus spending is having on the economy. That report showed a 1 percent increase in the poverty rate in the U.S. in 2020. It’s part of a recent growth trend that some economists say is the long-term result from coronavirus stimulus spending. The report showed prices to be 5.3 percent higher in August 2021 than the prior. The U.S. spent nearly $6 trillion on coronavirus stimulus spending, which the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget said helped grow personal income by more than 10 percent.
thewestsidegazette.comEconomists Worry Inflation Will Chill Growth
After a spike in recent months, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Price Index that was released on Wednesday again rose higher in July, though at a slower pace gave some economists hope. Unlike the consumer index, which measures how much a shopper pays for a good, the producer one measures inflation more from the store owner’s perspective. It raised some concerns among economists that inflation could continue growing. According to Furman, the rise in inflation was something some economists didn’t see coming. However, some argue that the subsequent rise in inflation takes the juice out of the wage jump.
thewestsidegazette.comInflation ahead? Even a top economist says it's complicated
Two months of sharply rising prices have raised concerns that record-high government financial aid and the Federal Reserve’s ultra-low interest rate policies — when the economy is already surging — have elevated the risk of accelerating inflation.
Fighting Biden virus aid, GOP rekindles Obama-era strategy
Americans are experiencing flickers of optimism at the one-year anniversary of the deadly outbreak as more people are vaccinated. But new strains of the virus and a still shaky economy could unleash another devastating cycle of infections, lockdowns and deaths. Biden and Democrats warn that now is not the time to let up on aid, and that it's better to risk doing too much than too little. McConnell expressed similar optimism last spring when he hit “pause” on new spending after approval of the initial round of aid. GOP Sen. Mike Braun of Indiana said by the time they're done they hope to turn public opinion around.
Fighting Biden virus aid, GOP rekindles Obama-era strategy
AdIt’s a tested strategy but comes at an uncertain, volatile time for the nation. Americans are experiencing flickers of optimism at the one-year anniversary of the deadly outbreak as more people are vaccinated. But new strains of the virus and a still shaky economy could unleash another devastating cycle of infections, lockdowns and deaths. Biden and the Democrats backing him warn that now is not the time to let up on aid — better to risk doing too much, than too little. GOP Sen. Mike Braun of Indiana said by the time they're done they hope to turn public opinion around.
Biden's test: Engineering economic boom in a partisan divide
(AP Photo/Andrew Harnik)BALTIMORE – When Joe Biden entered the White House as vice president, the economy was cratering. Biden returns to the White House as president a dozen years later with the economy battered and shaken by a pandemic. The investment bank Goldman Sachs estimates that growth this year could be 6.6% if part of Biden's stimulus plan passes. That would be the strongest gain since 1984, when a 7.2% increase in the gross domestic product helped carry Republican President Ronald Reagan to a second term in a landslide. For now, the Biden team is hoping to push through its stimulus with Republican support in the Senate.
U.S. adds 245,000 jobs in November, far fewer than expected – Cramer and others on what’s next
The U.S. economy added only 245,000 jobs in November, a number that was lower than the 440,000 expected. Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP Research Institute, breaks down underlying factors in the unemployment rate. "The one thing that we haven't heard is the labor force participation rate. I think that's going to be critical in understanding the edge down in the unemployment rate. I think that's a very wrong way to interpret these numbers.
cnbc.comUK to launch new watchdog next year to police tech giants
LONDON – Britain plans to create a new watchdog to police big tech companies including Google and Facebook to counter their market dominance and prevent them from exploiting consumers and small businesses. The Digital Markets Unit, scheduled to launch in April, will oversee a new regulatory regime for tech companies that's aimed at spurring more competition. In the U.S., authorities are pursuing an antitrust case against Google and lawmakers have proposed breaking up big tech companies. The government still needs to consult on how the digital markets unit will operate and approve legislation for it. Under the new code, tech companies would have to be more transparent about how they use consumers’ data.
Economists beg Congress to send more Covid-19 stimulus checks: CNBC After Hours
On today's show, CNBC's Ylan Mui breaks down a new letter from more than 100 economists begging Congress to send out another round of direct checks to the American people. Economists are calling for more stimulus checks. Here's where assistance plans standFor Americans who have had a tough year financially amid Covid-19, a second set of $1,200 stimulus checks would provide some much welcome relief. But lawmakers on Capitol Hill still need to work out their differences before they can approve another coronavirus stimulus package that will trigger those payments. "It's really too soon to tell how deep and how long there may be a depressed environment but we've seen some weakening of bookings."
cnbc.comMcConnell warns White House against COVID relief deal
Congress is past the point at which it can deliver more coronavirus aid soon, with differences between House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Senate Republicans and President Donald Trump proving insurmountable. McConnell on Tuesday told fellow Republicans that he has warned the White House not to divide Republicans by sealing a lopsided $2 trillion relief deal with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi before the election — even as he publicly said he'd slate any such agreement for a vote. said Senate GOP Whip John Thune of South Dakota. Senate Republicans are recoiling at both the size of the measure and Pelosi's demands, even as Trump is beating the drums for an agreement. But the Senate GOP bill has failed once before, and Trump himself says it's too puny.
Deadline looms, but COVID relief deal may be far off
She said the two sides would take stock on Tuesday, which she has staked out as the deadline if a deal is to be reached before the election. Pelosi is angling for the best deal she can get — maybe that’s now, maybe it’s later. And if history is any guide, prospects for a deal in the lame-duck session after the election could be dim. But the Senate GOP bill has failed once before, and Trump himself says it's too puny. For months she has been promising a COVID relief package of more than $2 trillion stuffed with Obama-era stimulus ideas.
AP-NORC poll: Politics drive divergent view of US economy
The economy is in terrible shape and improving rapidly, said Harvard University professor Jason Furman, formerly the top economist in the Obama White House. Overall, 63% of the country says the economy is in poor shape, down somewhat from the 70% who felt that way in May. The change was driven by increasingly optimistic Republicans, only 43% of whom described the economy as good a month ago. Forty-two percent of white Americans say the same. Thirty-four percent of Hispanics, 29% of African Americans and 20% of white Americans said someone in their household has been laid off.
White House punts economic update as election draws near
Paul Winfree, a former Trump White House director of budget policy, doubted that the holdup on the economic update was on Trump's radar. Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, noted that the law requires the White House to update its budget forecast. In 2017, the Trump administration criticized the Obama administration for rosy expectations of growth during the Great Recession more than a decade ago. An updated forecast in the mid-session review could make the Trump White House a similar target for criticism. This is a White House that is in denial about the trajectory of the economy.___Associated Press writers Alexandra Jaffe and Emily Swanson in Washington contributed to this report.
Jobless claims surge again here's what to watch
U.S. weekly jobs claims rose by 4.4 million last week, bringing the total number to about 26 million since the coronavirus pandemic began. "We want the program to work and I think that sadly what we're seeing is that the program is working quite well. "Twenty-six million [jobless claims] and counting and yet markets since the release of that data continue to digest them well, showing you that news was already anticipated. They're always looking out, they're bending the curve they're looking for all those things, perhaps better treatment, or eventually a vaccine, and so they are going to price themselves. I don't think that's going to happen but that would change my mind and I'm flexible.
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