A broad tropical disturbance extending from the Caribbean north into the Atlantic waters is heading west in the strong flow across the ocean. The disturbance – technically a tropical wave – will move across South Florida as a moisture surge late tomorrow into Tuesday. Periods of rain including tropical downpours are expected.
When the disturbance moves into the Gulf of Mexico mid to late week, the atmospheric conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for development. The National Hurricane Center is giving it a slight chance of organizing into at least a tropical depression before it moves ashore on the Texas or Mexico coast around next weekend. There are no indications that it will have much time to get very strong at this time.
This disturbance represents a moist gap in the plume of Saharan Dust that has been covering the tropical Atlantic much of the summer. A few more impulses of moisture are forecast to pass over Florida this week, but none of them show any signs that they might develop at this time.
Long-range computer forecast models show the dust returning to Florida around next weekend, as a dense plume pushes across the ocean over the next several days.
As a result, no tropical development is expected in the tropical Atlantic or the Caribbean this week.