The disturbance we’ve been following in the southwestern Caribbean – now dubbed Invest 93L by the Hurricane Center – has with it a small area of low pressure centered along the east coast of Nicaragua.
Given its proximity to land, the National Hurricane Center has lowered its odds for development over the next five days from 40 percent to 30 percent as it drifts slowly westward or northwestward along the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras.
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Although it wouldn’t take much for a tropical depression to form, conditions over the next few days are marginal at best for continued organization, assuming 93L stays sufficiently over water.
The Hurricane Hunters flight scheduled for Wednesday afternoon was canceled due to 93L’s limited organization, but they may fly the system Thursday if development trends warrant.
As we move into the weekend and the disturbance progresses northwestward toward the Yucatan Peninsula and southern Gulf, hostile wind shear may subside for some further organization if the low pressure isn’t first depleted by land interaction.
Regardless of development, the strong ridge of high pressure baking the eastern half of the U.S. will only expand westward, thwarting any attempts by 93L to advance northward this weekend and early next week, keeping it on a westward course across the extreme southern Gulf.
This one isn’t a concern for Florida or the U.S. for that matter. For interests in Central America and southern Mexico, heavy rainfall and potential flooding will be the primary threats over the next week.
Otherwise across the Atlantic, we continue to see rather benign weather.
We’re watching a few robust disturbances roll off Africa, but it’s still too early in the season to expect much from these. Meanwhile, the Saharan Air Layer is flexing its muscles and plaguing the tropical Atlantic with extremely dry and dusty conditions.