The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor a large, disorganized area of storminess across the southwestern Caribbean near the coasts of Honduras, Nicaragua and Costa Rica.
The broad region of low pressure is positioned in an area of natural background spin that extends from the eastern Pacific into the Caribbean – a zone of changing winds called the monsoon trough, where southwesterly winds wrap up with northeasterly winds.
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Along this monsoon trough, there are several areas of tropical activity, including newly minted Tropical Depression Two in the eastern Pacific, another area being monitored south of El Salvador in the Pacific, and our area to watch in the Caribbean.
The disturbance near Central America has a number of impediments working against its immediate development, including moderate to strong upper-level winds around the base of a semi-permanent feature in the western Atlantic known as the tropical upper tropospheric trough, or TUTT.
In addition to hostile wind shear, the disturbance is limited in its development potential by its proximity to land. Some models suggest possible interaction between this low pressure and low pressure in the eastern Pacific that would pivot the Caribbean disturbance temporarily northward, extending its time over water this week.
Additionally, another faster moving disturbance (tropical wave) moving in from the east may give it a little boost by the end of the week.
Regardless of development, high pressure fixed over the southern United States will keep the disturbance well to our south and steer it westward into the weekend.
Historically, not many storms have formed in this part of the Caribbean in mid-late June, likely due to land interaction. A more favored path to development often happens in the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico and Bay of Campeche, a later possibility as the system moves westward this weekend.
In general, storms this far south have a tough time “unsticking” from the southern Gulf and continue to track westward into Mexico.
The upshot this week and into the weekend will be heavy rainfall and potential flooding across portions of Honduras, Nicaragua and southern Mexico. Otherwise, the tropics look quiet into the weekend.
Latest update on the tropics provided by Local 10 Hurricane Specialist and Storm Surge Expert Michael Lowry.