Over the past 30 years on August 17th, we’ve seen a tropical cyclone (tropical depression, tropical storm, or hurricane) somewhere in the Atlantic for half of those years.
In the other half, we saw what we’re seeing today – a map empty of any active tropical cyclones.
That could change in the coming days with a disturbance set to emerge over the Bay of Campeche in the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday.
The healthy tropical wave, currently centered over northern Honduras, will be restricted in its development potential as it traverses Central America and southern Mexico today and tomorrow, but will have a window of opportunity to spin up once it reemerges over the southern Gulf later this week.
Similar to Invest 98L – a tenacious disturbance that moved inland over south Texas on Sunday, bringing double-digit rain totals to some drought-stricken areas – the current system will have its best shot at development as it nears the western Gulf coast on Saturday.
Clockwise flow around an expansive ridge of high pressure established across the southeastern U.S. and into the northern Gulf will keep the tropical disturbance moving westward and toward northern Mexico and extreme south Texas -- areas in need of soaking rains after a long, dry summer.
Elsewhere, things should stay quiet at least into the weekend.
As we mentioned in yesterday’s newsletter, the long-range models are beginning to perk up by the middle to latter part of next week, as we would expect them to for the last week of August.
For now, it’s too early to say anything substantive, but it’s a trend we’ll continue to follow and update you on in the days ahead.