Each day absent a named storm in the Atlantic grows increasingly unusual by this point in the hurricane season.
It’s difficult to read much into the quietness of the tropics until around mid-August, since less than 10 percent of tropical activity occurs before then. The early ones just don’t count for much.
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By August 25th, however, with the traditional ramp up in hurricane season activity, we’re typically through about 20 percent of the year’s tropical activity. But so far in 2022 it’s been the least active start to a hurricane season (as measured by Accumulated Cyclone Energy or ACE) since 1988.
Only four seasons in the satellite era (since 1966) have observed so little activity through August 25th (1988, 1984, 1977, and 1967), and of those four only one (1967) was able squeeze out above average activity by the end of the year.
Of course, 1988 produced Category 5 Hurricane Gilbert – the second most intense hurricane on record in the Atlantic – and with 1967 came Category 5 Hurricane Beulah that killed nearly 60 people along its path, so bad hurricanes still happened.
Over the past 30 years, the Atlantic has averaged two hurricanes by August 26th, but so far the Atlantic hasn’t recorded a single hurricane thus far in 2022.
On average, this happens about once every six years, but like overall tropical energy, a hurricane-less Atlantic each day in late August and early September becomes increasingly unusual.
In the modern record, the Atlantic has never gone an entire year without record of a hurricane. The fewest hurricanes in a modern hurricane season were two, which happened in both 2013 and 1982.
The latest first hurricane formation in the Atlantic in the modern record was September 11th, which happened in both 2013 (Humberto) and 2002 (Gustav).
So with this long prelude, what’s it looking like to round out the last week of August?
We’re tracking two disturbances in the Atlantic separated by about 2,500 miles of ocean. The disturbance closer to us is bringing gusty tropical rains through the Windward Islands today and will continue to track westward into the Caribbean this weekend. Strong high pressure to the north will keep the disturbance on a quick westward pace and well south of us into early next week. Only gradual development is anticipated.
A second disturbance rolled off Africa yesterday. Forecast models move this quickly through the eastern Atlantic with little fanfare through the weekend.
With only a low chance for development of both systems, it’s increasingly likely we’ll get through the month without a hurricane, only the seventh such occurrence in the modern record. After the very busy hurricane seasons of recent years, this is a record we can all support.