Tropical Storm Fiona, largely held in check from yesterday, is approaching the easternmost islands of the Caribbean today and is forecast to bring squally weather and potentially flooding rains to parts of the northern Antilles this weekend.
Fiona is expected to turn, but exactly where and when that happens will determine what threat, if any, it poses next week to the Bahamas and South Florida.
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Modest upper-level winds from the west continue to displace much of Fiona’s weather east of its periodically exposed low-level center, with occasional bursts of new thunderstorms erupting closer to its circulation nexus.
Hurricane Hunters investigating Fiona this morning are finding 50 mph winds in deep convection some 50-75 miles northeast of its partially exposed circulation.
The persistent wind shear has plagued Fiona since its inception and is forecast to follow it as it tracks near or over the islands of the northern Caribbean this weekend.
While Fiona’s winds aren’t expected to strengthen appreciably in the coming days, history has shown that even moderate tropical storms can be destructive in this part of the world when they pour out heavy rain atop already saturated soils.
Tropical Storm Erika in 2015, whose peak winds never exceeded 50 mph, brought catastrophic flooding and deadly mudslides to Dominica, becoming only the second tropical storm on record whose name was retired due to especially deadly and destructive impacts.
For us in South Florida, the big question with Fiona is what happens beyond this weekend? We’re confident the storm will turn northward early next week as it feels a break in high pressure steering to its north.
Exactly when and where the turn happens, however, is less certain and complicated by both subtle deviations in track today and how it interacts with the islands this weekend.
The storm has been tracking noticeably south of NHC and computer model forecasts over the past 24 hours.
Fiona’s center position this morning is about 75 miles south of NHC’s forecast from yesterday morning, much larger than the typical 30-40 mile 24-hour track error.
The deviation south forced NHC to adjust its track in the near term southward, with a center track now likely into rather than adjacent to the eastern Caribbean this weekend.
The other puzzle piece affecting Fiona’s future track is its intensity heading into next week, a factor intertwined with how its circulation interacts with mountainous island terrain, especially as it nears Hispaniola on Monday.
Forecast models clearly indicate a stronger storm will turn northward more abruptly while a weaker storm won’t pick up on the turn as quickly.
A small deviation in track south or north with island steppingstones ahead can have meaningful impacts on how future Fiona feels the turn.
Expect long-range forecast models to jump around in the coming days – last night they were west, this morning they’re east, tomorrow who knows.
What’s most important is to take the time this weekend to review your family hurricane plans and check on harder-to-get supplies like prescription medicines just in case Fiona trends our way next week.
Hurricane Hunter crews will be gathering up lots of good data to help settle down forecast models in the coming days so the best we can do right now is to stay patient and stay tuned.