The disturbance we’ve been following in the Caribbean – dubbed Invest 91L – is taking a familiar track south along South America’s northern shoreline like other systems we’ve tracked this season, including the disturbance that became Bonnie back in June and more recently the tropical wave that later became Hurricane Ian.
This one will look more like Bonnie than Ian, however, as it’s expected to quickly organize in the western Caribbean and threaten Nicaragua and parts of Honduras and El Salvador by the weekend.
Interaction with land is the main impediment for now, as 91L brings flooding rains and squally weather across northern Venezuela and through the ABC islands flanking the country in the coming days.
Once it clears South America, conditions look ripe for 91L to come together, with most forecast guidance showing Julia forming quickly as it enters the western Caribbean.
For us back here in the U.S., a blocking high pressure will prevent the future storm from moving into the Gulf and 91L or what comes of it will pass well to our south.
For Central America, however, a serious threat will emerge for late weekend and early next week, especially with the heavy rainfall the system may unload over mountainous terrain.
The tropics otherwise look quiet.
Tropical Depression Twelve is wrapping up its short-lived and inconsequential jaunt over the open Atlantic. Our gaze will shift back to the waters closer to home as we round out the season, but for the time being, nothing ahead appears looming.