We continue to follow an area of storminess in the Caribbean that may organize into a tropical depression by late weekend or early next week.
The unsettled weather, which extends through the eastern Caribbean and across the Lesser Antilles, remains disorganized, but in the coming days activity is expected to coalesce into an organized system south of Hispaniola in the central Caribbean.
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The good news for us in South Florida and along mainland U.S. shorelines is high pressure anchored over the Gulf of Mexico will keep this one to our south next week.
Additionally, as we’ve discussed in previous newsletters, disruptive wind shear remains historically high in the Gulf so any organized activity will stay confined south of this hostile shear zone.
Without a coherent low-pressure area, the forecast details will take some time to iron out, but steering currents should guide the system generally westward toward Central America next week.
A system positioned farther south would experience more conducive conditions for organization whereas a system farther north and closer to Jamaica may feel the adverse effects of stronger upper-level winds.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall will be a concern from the easternmost Caribbean islands through Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands this weekend.
Otherwise, the shower activity around Bermuda that’s being kindled by strong upper-level winds remains messy. Development odds are dwindling, and the system will get booted out to sea later this weekend by the approaching front.