Despite seasonal weather patterns that normally favor development closer to the United States, June notched two named storms east of the Caribbean islands – the first time that’s happened in a single season in the 173-year hurricane record book.
The parade of misfits continues into July with an area to watch farther northeast in the Atlantic than most other tropical or subtropical cyclones forming this early in the hurricane season.
Over the weekend the National Hurricane Center highlighted a PAC-MAN-shaped region of the North Atlantic for possible development later this week. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form along a lingering front east of Bermuda by late tomorrow into Wednesday.
Although this low-pressure area will be distinctly non-tropical to start, its placement near a cold pocket of air aloft will promote storminess which could allow for a transition to a brief subtropical or tropical system later this week.
For purely tropical systems, development happens from the bottom-up – that is, the warm ocean drives organized storminess. In this case, development, if it occurs, would happen from the top-down, with jet stream winds initially fueling the growth of thunderstorms – like bellows to a fire.
In time, warm waters may contribute more to the development of the low-pressure system, encouraging warmth near its center and a gradual tropical transition.
For now, the system has a low chance of formation, but if it manages to overcome the odds, it would be one of the farthest northeast-forming tropical or subtropical systems during the month of July. The system should meander over the central Atlantic into the weekend and, regardless of development, poses no threat to land.
Elsewhere down in the deep tropics, one of the biggest outbreaks of Saharan dust this hurricane season is pushing westward. The dry, dusty air will keep a lid on development here and closer to home for the week ahead.