The last named storm to make an appearance in the Atlantic was Don – the only hurricane so far of 2023 – which burned its last ember during the early morning hours of July 24th. The 15 days since the last named storm is a little longer than usual for the time of year, but not exceptionally so.
Even in some busier seasons the Atlantic saw long, early lulls – in 2019, for example, nearly 40 days between Barry in July and Chantal in late August. It feels unusual, but it isn’t yet.
It looks like we’ll ride the cold streak into next week despite a few very healthy-looking tropical waves marching westward through the deep tropical Atlantic.
Forecast models show a dry, stable airmass enveloping the Atlantic east of the Caribbean that’ll tamp down development chances. The westernmost wave will bring a reinforcing surge of moisture to the eastern and central Caribbean islands – including Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands – by mid to late week, but we’re not concerned with any tropical organization.
Looking further ahead into next week, wind shear, which has been largely below average for the past several weeks, is forecast to pep up, resembling the high-shear pattern we’d typically expect during El Niño events like the one currently unfolding in the eastern Pacific.
As we discussed in our newsletter to start the month, models do suggest things may pick up for the latter part of August as wind shear relaxes and climatology kicks in. But for now, the first half of August looks to remain mostly quiet, extending the Atlantic’s slumber streak into extra innings.
