Though the flurry of activity early in the hurricane season – including three named storms by the end of June – put the Atlantic on pace for one of the most active starts in a decade, activity has settled down some since late July.
Like a long-distance pacesetter, the eager 2023 season has dropped back in the race but remains slightly above average year-to-date.
The tropical disturbances this week – at times very healthy appearing – stretch from Africa to the Pacific, but the atmosphere on the Atlantic side isn’t yet promoting the sustained rising air needed to maintain persistent storminess for development.
The northern edge of one of these tropical waves moving through the Caribbean will approach South Florida this weekend, and though we’re not expecting any development, it will bring increased rain chances and perhaps with it some relief from the relentless days of excessive heat.
Next week, we’ll turn our gaze again toward Africa as a new set of disturbances move into the eastern Atlantic. Our long-range models show a complicated setup, and while it’s tough this far out to pinpoint a discernible feature, the general flavor is lower pressures building east of the Caribbean, especially into late next week.
It’s something we’ll want to monitor, as models also show a more conducive configuration of upper-level winds across the Atlantic come the third week of August when, historically, the Atlantic starts to really perk up.
