Tropical Storm Lee, which formed Monday afternoon in the central Atlantic, continues to strengthen and is almost a hurricane this morning.
The storm is expected to rapidly intensify over the record warm Atlantic and grow into an extremely powerful Category 4 hurricane in the days ahead.
Over the weekend, the major hurricane will be approaching the northernmost Caribbean islands but forecast models for now keep the center passing north of the islands. By early next week, high pressure steering to Lee’s north will weaken and should allow the hurricane to bend northward before posing a problem for Florida.
That’s still nearly a week out, so we’ll need to monitor forecast trends for any big changes, but so far track guidance has been encouraging.
Buckle up for a big hurricane
For their first official forecast yesterday, the National Hurricane Center predicted rapid strengthening into a Category 4 hurricane in only 4 to 5 days. According to official advisory archives (extending back to the year 2000), this was NHC’s most aggressive initial intensity forecast ever issued.
It’s easy to see why the forecasters at NHC are so bullish on Lee. Nearly all of our best intensity models show rapid strengthening to Category 4 or 5 intensity by late week courtesy of little wind shear and a deep well of warm water – some of the warmest ever recorded in the Atlantic – topping 86°F (30°C) along its path.
At extreme intensity as what’s being forecast, exactly how strong a hurricane gets is dictated by eyewall replacement cycles, a process that’s difficult to predict, especially far in advance. Regardless of the details, Lee is destined to be an Atlantic chart topper.
Steady as she goes
Forecast models have been very consistent in Lee’s future track. Model-to-model runs have shown little change, especially within the next five days. This forecast consistency may be in part due to Lee’s large circulation, but it also gives confidence in the overall steering currents for the near term.
High pressure will guide Lee west-northwest, and the hurricane should gain enough latitude to clear the northernmost Caribbean islands by this weekend.
That said, the islands from Puerto Rico eastward should keep close watch on the forecast as Lee is expected to be a large and powerful hurricane. Even if it doesn’t directly strike the islands, these areas will feel its presence, from brisk winds to potentially heavy rain in outer bands to dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents.
By early next week, models largely agree Lee will bend northward in response to a weakening high-pressure ridge to its north.
This should happen well east of Florida, though it’s too soon to say whether the hurricane will move far enough west to directly impact the Turks and Caicos or parts of the eastern Bahamas. Residents and visitors need to monitor this one closely.
Beyond early next week, there’s a lot of uncertainty with potential impacts from Bermuda to the northeast U.S. We’ll be sorting through these details as we head into the weekend.
The bottom line
Lee is expected to be a large and powerful hurricane this week and one of the strongest – if not the strongest – of the season. While its center is expected to pass north of the northernmost Caribbean islands, those areas will want to stay abreast to forecast changes. At the very least, heavy rain in outer bands, dangerous surf, and life-threatening rip currents will be possible from Puerto Rico eastward beginning this weekend.
For now, Lee is forecast to turn northward before posing a problem for Florida.
More storms ahead but no significant land threats for now
The Atlantic looks to keep churning up storms as we hit the peak of the hurricane season, but thankfully, we don’t see any land threats for now.
Invest 96L – a tropical wave that just rolled off Africa – is the next storm on deck. It will move through the Cabo Verde islands tomorrow and could slowly develop into the weekend. By next week, models show continued strengthening but the system will be moving northwest over open waters.
Behind it, we’ll need to keep an eye to Africa as strong waves keep rolling off into mid-September.