On Thursday, government forecasters – including senior forecasters from the National Hurricane Center – issued their highest predictions headed into a hurricane season since federal hurricane outlooks began in 1999.
The team of scientists at NOAA, the parent agency of the National Weather Service, predicts an 85% chance of an above-average Atlantic hurricane season in 2024, with 17-25 named storms and 8-13 hurricanes, with 4-7 becoming Category 3, 4, or 5 hurricanes. The 30-year (1991-2020) seasonal averages are 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 Category 3 or stronger hurricanes.
Regarding their aggressive predictions, NOAA Administrator Dr. Rick Spinrad commented, “This season is looking to be an extraordinary one in a number of ways.”
The strong outlook from NOAA follows similarly bullish forecasts from other groups, such as Colorado State University, which issued its highest seasonal predictions to date back in early April.
Record warmth paired with a looming La Niña
NOAA’s forecast comes as tropical Atlantic waters reach all-time records for the time of year. As of this week, 92% of the Main Development Region of the Atlantic – where 85% of Category 3, 4, and 5 hurricanes form – is at record or near-record seasonal warmth.
The astonishing heat blanketing the entire hurricane belt is forecast to continue into August, September, and October – the peak months of the hurricane season. Government forecasters note high sea surface temperatures favor rapid intensification episodes and major hurricane development, which contribute to high accumulated cyclone energy or ACE, a scorecard of hurricane season activity. NOAA expects an ACE of 1.5 to 2.5 times the average, a forecast second only to their 2010 ACE predictions.
Perhaps the biggest wildcard this hurricane season is the anticipated arrival of La Niña by late summer or early fall. The potent El Niño of 2023 is quickly becoming a distant memory and NOAA is forecasting a near 80% chance of La Niña conditions – a cooling of the waters around the equator in the eastern Pacific – as hurricane season hits its stride this fall.
La Niña conditions tend to reduce disruptive wind shear in the Atlantic, which can tear at organizing hurricanes. The reduction in shear from La Niña is usually most pronounced in the western part of the Atlantic and Caribbean, which could favor storm development closer to land areas, including the mainland U.S., in 2024.
A reason to be concerned, but not alarmed
National Weather Service Director Ken Graham noted the eye-catching seasonal hurricane outlook issued Thursday was “a reason to be concerned, but not alarmed.” Pre-season hurricane outlooks can’t tell us where or when a hurricane might strike – we can’t accurately forecast short-term weather conditions this far out – and it only takes one bad hurricane to make a bad hurricane season, regardless of the overall numbers.
Graham reminded coastal residents that every Category 5 hurricane that made landfall in the U.S. in the past 100 years was a tropical storm or weaker only three days before landfall.
“These storms don’t care about your timelines,” he noted, making now – and before a storm threatens – the best time to prepare.
As Florida readies for the upcoming hurricane season, the state is offering multiple two-week sales tax holidays this summer to eliminate the tax burden on disaster preparedness items. The first such sales tax holiday will extend from June 1st to June 14th. A list of disaster preparedness items that qualify can be found here.
Mostly quiet for now in the Atlantic
The National Hurricane Center Thursday morning was highlighting an area of storminess extending from the central Caribbean into the southwestern Atlantic.
This disturbed weather is being produced by a nearby jet stream dip interacting with a broad area of low pressure. The presence of strong nearby jet stream winds and dry air wrapping in from the west will limit development odds. There’s a small window for subtropical development in the coming days as the low pressure area moves into the central Atlantic and away from the islands.
Regardless, the main threat will be the possibility of flooding rains and mudslides from Haiti and the Dominican Republic to Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands into early next week.