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NATIONAL RETAIL FEDERATION

US consumers rebound to boost spending 2.4% as income jumps

The January spending increase followed two straight monthly spending drops that had raised concerns that consumers, who power most of the economy, were hunkered down, too anxious to travel, shop and spend. Consumers saved a significant chunk of their income last month: The personal savings rate jumped to 20.5% from 13.4% in December. It was the highest savings rate since May of last year in the aftermath of pandemic's eruption. AdGregory Daco, chief economist at Oxford Economics, said he thinks the high savings rate, combined with pent-up consumer demand and further federal aid, will lift economic growth this year to 7%. “The combination of a healthier economy and more government stimulus should generate a strong rebound by the middle of the year.”

U.S. retail sales fell in December for 3rd straight month

A sale sign is displayed near the entrance of a Hallmark store Tuesday, Jan. 12, 2021, in Orlando, Fla. Retail sales fell for a third straight month, as a surge in virus cases kept people away from stores and restaurants during the holiday shopping season. The U.S. Commerce Department said Friday that retail sales fell a seasonally adjusted 0.7% in December from the month before, a decline Wall Street analysts weren't expecting. The Commerce Department said sales even fell online, down nearly 6% after rising 19% for the year. At restaurants and bars, sales fell 4.5% in December as states restricted in-person dining, ending the year down 21%. The nation’s largest retail trade group said that when car, restaurant and gas sales are taken out, and when non-seasonably adjusted numbers are compared from a year ago instead of month to month, sales in November and December actually rose 8.3% from the year before.

Seeing more shoppers? Don’t confuse that with an economic rebound

MIAMI-DADE COUNTY, Fla. – At Dolphin Mall, festive music greets buoyant holiday shoppers like Laquan Jones, who says he was back shopping for the first time since the pandemic began. But economists like Diane Swonk say we shouldn’t confuse an economic pick-up with a rebound. @DianeSwonk warns not to confuse an economic pick-up with a rebound. "Only 60.2% of consumers plan to shop In-Store during 2020 holiday shopping season. “The current overall economic condition in Miami-Dade County is a derivative of the regional and national decline in economic activity due to the COVID-19 pandemic,” the audit says.

Retail trade group sees solid holiday sales despite pandemic

NEW YORK – The National Retail Federation, the nation's largest retail trade group, expects that holiday sales could actually exceed growth seen in prior seasons, despite all the uncertainty surrounding the pandemic. Holiday sales have averaged gains of 3.5% over the past five years. Not included in total sales figure are sales from restaurants, gas stations and auto dealers. Still, the NRF cited that the aggregate retail sales have seen a V-shaped recovery, growing both month-over-month and year-over-year each month since June. For the first ten months of this year, retail sales rose 6.4% compared with the first 10 months of 2019.

Retailers expect a strong holiday shopping season

Getty Images via CNN(CNN) - Retailers expect consumers to deliver another strong holiday shopping season, even as the trade war hangs over the economy. Even so, retail sales in November and December will nevertheless grow between 3.8% and 4.2%, to up to $730 billion, the National Retail Federation predicted Thursday. Holiday sales have increased by an average of 3.7% over the past five years, according to the group. Job growth, a low unemployment rate and rising wages will bolster holiday spending, Shay said. The trade war between China and the United States, the world's two largest economies, is weighing on retailers.