There’s only one area to watch in the tropics right now and it’s a tropical wave moving through the main development region.
Most of the Atlantic is unfavorable for development at the moment, which is not unusual. It’s July after all. We’re still 45 days away from the climatological peak of hurricane season.
The wave far in the Atlantic is producing minimal thunderstorm activity, as of Thursday morning. There’s a surge of dry, dusty air ahead of it.
The earliest development shown in our computer models is this weekend, when the disturbance is roughly 700 miles east of the Leeward Islands. The National Hurricane Center puts the chances of development into a tropical depression or tropical storm at a medium 40%.
A large high in the Atlantic will steer this system to the west through early next week. A dip in the jet stream is setting the stage for a possible turn to the north.
This could open up a path into the northern Atlantic without many impacts to the Caribbean or the U.S., but it is too soon to put stock in any one scenario.
This tropical wave has a long way to go before developing a closed circulation. Without a center to track, the long range forecast is hazy. This will be something we watch, but is not concerning.
The next named storm will be Emily. The average formation date of the “E” storm is August 22.