The peculiarities of the sleepy 2022 hurricane season are mounting with each passing day, including what could be only the second year of the modern era (since the advent of satellites in 1966) without a single tropical cyclone in August.
Two tropical waves we’re tracking this morning could pour cold water on this welcome scenario if they’re able to develop before next Wednesday. For now, the National Hurricane Center has only a low chance of that happening.
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The westernmost system, a fast-moving wave we’ve been tracking since it rolled off Africa last Saturday, will be traveling through the eastern and central Caribbean this weekend.
For now, storminess associated with the disturbance is minimal and upper-level winds don’t appear conducive to organization over the next several days. The system will continue off toward the west into early next week and, with very pronounced high-pressure steering to its north, will not pose a threat to us in South Florida, regardless of future development.
The second wave we’re watching (wave #2) will also get steered westward under the same ridge of high pressure into early next week.
Although environmental conditions in the near term don’t favor quick organization, forecast models suggest conditions may become more conducive for development beyond this weekend.
This one still needs time to cook and is still a solid week out from reaching the islands. It won’t immediately turn out, so we’ll need to keep an eye on it next week.
It’s been a remarkable 55 days since the Atlantic last recorded a tropical cyclone. This is the longest gap between systems stretching this far into the hurricane season since a 69-day stretch elapsed between an unnamed system in June and Beryl back in 1982.
The big question on everyone’s minds is how long will it last?