A vigorous tropical wave moving through the central Atlantic – now dubbed Invest 96L by the National Hurricane Center – gathered steam overnight and could become a tropical depression or storm before reaching the Lesser Antilles, U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico by this weekend.
Although storminess associated with 96L has waxed and waned at times, the thunderstorm activity has largely persisted since blossoming late Tuesday evening.
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As we discussed in Tuesday’s newsletter, the tenacity of overall storminess around the disturbance has distinguished it as a contender for development despite an initially bearish outlook from forecast models.
The lopsided pattern of convection – focused mostly east of 96L’s broad center – still leaves much to be desired. That said, the circulation is robust so just a slight uptick in thunderstorm organization would lead to the formation of a tropical depression or storm.
The NHC currently gives the system a high chance of development over the next day or two.
Through the weekend, the steering forecast is fairly straightforward. The system will head toward the northern Caribbean islands – including the Lesser Antilles, U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic – by the weekend where, regardless of development, it will bring squally weather and heavy rain that could trigger flooding and mudslides due to already saturated soils.
Those in the Lesser and Greater Antilles will want to monitor the system’s progress in the coming days.
Beyond the weekend, the forecast gets more complicated.
Both increasing wind shear and land interaction may hinder the progress of 96L or what comes of it, which, along with a messy upper-air pattern, make the future murky.
While some models show a break in the westward-guiding subtropical ridge as the system approaches Cuba and the Bahamas, perhaps allowing for a northward turn, it’s far too soon to put much stock in these longer-range forecasts.
The bottom line for South Florida and the Bahamas is we’ll need to stay patient and stay informed, especially as we approach the weekend.
We’ll have the very latest on-air and online, so check back for the latest developments.