Quiet, dusty week in the tropics comes to a close
The tropical Atlantic this week has been closed for business, thanks to the largest outbreak of Saharan dust since early June and a prominent upper-level low pinwheeling its way from the central Atlantic toward South Florida, keeping hostile upper winds locked in over the Caribbean.
Norcross: A disturbance to watch far out in Atlantic, but dry air still dominates the tropics
The National Hurricane Center is taking note of a somewhat-organized tropical disturbance in the far eastern Atlantic. The disturbance is sneaking under a big batch of dry Saharan air, which is still spread across the tropics. The disturbance has a limited window of time to develop before it drives into the dry air and somewhat hostile upper winds. At the end of the week, the upper winds and the dry air are forecast to affect the system. Pockets of dry air aloft are forecast to pass over South Florida this week, which will limit the rain when they do.
Saharan dust controls the tropics but watching a system over the Southeast
A belt of Saharan dust continues to spread across the tropical Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. The dry, dusty air is expected to keep the tropics quiet through this week, at least. Tropical disturbances are moving off Africa on schedule, but they can only exist at low latitudes, south of the dust belt. Over the next couple of days, the system is forecast to consolidate over or near the North Carolina coast and track north as a coastal storm. If it moves over the warm water of the Gulf Stream, it might gain some aspects of a tropical system.
Tropics stay quiet through the weekend
A combination of dry Saharan air and a strong high-pressure system stretching across the Atlantic will keep the tropics quiet through the weekend, and likely well beyond. The first surge of Saharan dust that we have been tracking all week is forecast to loop around the Gulf of Mexico and move down the Florida peninsula over the weekend. Generally these disturbances cant organize because of the Saharan Air Layer of dusty air they have to plow through. In Florida, when there is a layer of Saharan air in the atmosphere, we normally have lower thunderstorm chances than normal. Inland high temperatures over the weekend will push into the mid-90s once again, with feels-like temperatures well above 100.
Bryan Norcross Podcast - Simplifying hazardous weather alerts with Eli Jacks of the National Weather Service
Bryan and Local 10 meteorologist Luke Dorris discuss the superplume of Saharan dust in the Atlantic, the unusually early arrival of the 4th named storm of the season, and a project by the National Weather Service to streamline weather alerts, called HazSimp, with National Weather Service meteorologist Eli JacksYou can watch the conversation above, or download the audio podcast below. SUBSCRIBE to The Bryan Norcross Podcast - iTunes | Android
Tropics remain quiet, no development expected this week
The atmospheric conditions in the tropical Atlantic continue to inhibit the development of tropical systems. A robust wave which just crossed the African coast is about a week away from our vicinity. Fifteen years ago today, Category 4 Hurricane Charley hit Southwest Florida near Punta Gorda, just north of Fort Myers. The consensus was that Charley was going to hit Tampa. That was even though Southwest Florida was in the cone and the odds of a hurricane coming within 75 miles were higher in Fort Myers that morning than Tampa.
Tropics remain quiet, no development expected this week
The atmospheric conditions in the tropical Atlantic continue to inhibit the development of tropical systems. A robust wave which just crossed the African coast is about a week away from our vicinity. Fifteen years ago today, Category 4 Hurricane Charley hit Southwest Florida near Punta Gorda, just north of Fort Myers. The consensus was that Charley was going to hit Tampa. That was even though Southwest Florida was in the cone and the odds of a hurricane coming within 75 miles were higher in Fort Myers that morning than Tampa.
No tropical development expected through weekend
No tropical development is expected through the weekend. The tropical Atlantic is covered with a combination of Saharan dust and unfavorable upper-level winds. These conditions are expected to prevent any development of tropical systems into the weekend. CLICK HERE to have the Bryan Norcross Talks Tropics newsletter delivered to your inbox. The upper-level system that has been pulling up tropical moisture and producing heavy rain over South Florida is moving out.
No tropical development expected through weekend
No tropical development is expected through the weekend. The tropical Atlantic is covered with a combination of Saharan dust and unfavorable upper-level winds. These conditions are expected to prevent any development of tropical systems into the weekend. CLICK HERE to have the Bryan Norcross Talks Tropics newsletter delivered to your inbox. The upper-level system that has been pulling up tropical moisture and producing heavy rain over South Florida is moving out.
Tropics to remain quiet until middle of next week, at least
Tropical waves are coming off of Africa on schedule, and a number of them this year have been quite robust. The atmosphere over the tropical Atlantic has been unusually dry, however, largely because of Saharan dust blowing over the ocean. On average, late July is a fairly quiet time in the tropics, with activity picking up significantly by the second week of August. For now, no tropical development is expected through the middle of next week, at least. CLICK HERE to have the Bryan Norcross Talks Tropics newsletter delivered to your inbox.
Tropical Storm Alvin forms, but no threat to land
MIAMI - The same high-pressure and Saharan dust that has been making it so hot in South Florida, is also unfavorable for any tropical development. While the local weather pattern will finally change to something more like normal for the end of June, the rest of the tropics are expected to remain unfavorable for development into at least early July. CLICK HERE to have the Bryan Norcross Talks Tropics newsletter delivered to your inbox. Its been unusually quiet up until now, but a tiny storm, Tropical Storm Alvin, has developed well offshore of the Mexican coast. Copyright 2019 by WPLG Local10.com - All rights reserved.